Polls suggest a snap election landslide as Japan’s Takaichi pushes for a decisive mandate, with fresh surveys indicating that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is on track to deliver a commanding victory for her ruling coalition in this weekend’s vote.
According to a Nikkei poll conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, are projected to win more than 300 of the 465 seats in the Lower House. Such a result would mark a sweeping endorsement of Takaichi’s leadership and strengthen her grip on power.
The outlook aligns closely with an earlier survey by Asahi Shimbun, which also forecast the ruling bloc crossing the 300-seat mark. In contrast, the opposition Central Reform Alliance—made up of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito—is expected to see its representation slashed to roughly half of its current 167 seats, based on Nikkei’s findings.
Additional polling by Kyodo News paints an even stronger picture for the LDP, suggesting the party could secure an outright majority of more than 233 seats on its own. Nikkei reports that the LDP is aiming higher still, setting its sights on surpassing 261 seats—a milestone that would give it full control of parliamentary committees and chairmanships.
If the coalition were to secure a two-thirds majority in the Lower House, it would gain the authority to override vetoes from the Upper House when passing legislation, significantly expanding its legislative power.
This election comes after a turbulent political period. Last year, the LDP lost its majority in the Upper House, followed by a defeat in the Lower House in 2024 that led then–Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to step down in September. Takaichi’s rise has since reshaped the political landscape, culminating in this snap election.
The campaign has also drawn international attention. U.S. President Donald Trump publicly voiced his backing for the ruling coalition, announcing on Truth Social that he plans to meet Takaichi on March 19. He described his support as a “complete and total endorsement,” adding that Takaichi “will not let the people of Japan down.”
Takaichi has tied her political future to the outcome, pledging to resign if the coalition fails to secure a majority. With strong personal approval ratings, the outspoken conservative leader is betting that her popularity will translate directly into votes for the LDP and its allies.
Kristi Govella, Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, previously noted that a decisive win would likely reflect Takaichi’s personal appeal rather than any meaningful improvement in Japan’s economic conditions. “Little else has changed since July, when the LDP was drubbed at the polls,” Govella observed.
As voters head to the ballot box, the election is shaping up not just as a test of party strength, but as a referendum on Takaichi herself—and her bid for an unambiguous mandate to govern.
